Given the hunt for stores of value these days that are unaffected by currency debasement, I thought it would be interesting to look at what the "market cap" is for various short domains?
Here are the results (in $ millions) when market cap is determined by median sale price.
NN.com: $10 million
NNN.com: $67 million
NNNN.com: $15 million
LL.com: $95 million
LLL.com: $160 million
LLLL.com: $275 million
N refers to a number and L refers to a letter, so NNN.coms are 3-digit .com domains, and LLLL.com's are four letter .com domains.
The market cap for NN.com's is the smallest, around $8 million, because there are only 100 of these domains, and median sale prices are around $80,000. The median sale prices for LL.com's (676 in existence) are around $125,000.
Interestingly, there is a huge drop-off in market cap for LLLL.com's versus LLL.com's, because median sale prices for LLLL.com's is approximately $20, and even with the huge size of the market (456,976 domains), the market cap is dragged down by the vast quantity of "bad letter" sales.
Of course, if you determine market cap by reference to average sale price, a completely different result occurs.
NN.com: $10 million
NNN.com: $67 million
NNNN.com $15 million
LL.com: $95 million
LLL.com: $160 million
LLLL.com: $150 million
The total market cap for all short domains two letters NNNN.com's and LL-LLLL.com's? About $500 million. This figure may seem large, but it is actually mind-numbingly small. A hedge fund or large institutional investor could easily buy up a huge chunk of the market.
Compare this to the market for gold. I know there are some gold bugs out there, but come on, things are a little bit nuts over there, the market cap for the gold market is approximately $9 trillion!
I would personally rather have a decent NNNN.com or a random LLL.com than an ounce of gold right now, that's for sure. At least short domains have a variety of real uses and generate income. Plus the available supply is fixed. People hoarding gold and silver right now apparently do not seem to notice or care that the stuff is just sitting there in the ground, and can be retrieved for a fraction of current prices. Basic logic suggests there will eventually be a huge price correction.
In short domain land on the other hand, awareness among the general population of domains as an alternative investment vehicle is still very low. As we are approaching 100 million registered .com domains, with no end in sight to the growth of the domain market as China comes online en masse, it is inevitable that the shortest and most versatile domains will become more.
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
4.cn Auction Results Keep Coming
More nice numerics sales on 4.cn.
881588.com RMB¥200 $30
811188.com RMB¥200 $30
123456.hk RMB¥220 $33
6245.com RMB¥4,301 $645
98198.com.cn RMB¥200 $30
4765.com RMB¥9,999 $1,500
6686.com RMB¥66,000 $9,900
339933.com RMB¥200 $30
881588.com RMB¥200 $30
811188.com RMB¥200 $30
123456.hk RMB¥220 $33
6245.com RMB¥4,301 $645
98198.com.cn RMB¥200 $30
4765.com RMB¥9,999 $1,500
6686.com RMB¥66,000 $9,900
339933.com RMB¥200 $30
Monday, August 29, 2011
99 Million .com domains registered by the end of the year.
As of today, there were 96,853,495 .com domains registered.
In the last month and a half, the registration rate has averaged 17,648 domains per day. At the current rate, more than 99,000,000 domains will be registered by year end.
So we probably won't hit 100,000,000 by year end, but registration rates remain strong.
In the last month and a half, the registration rate has averaged 17,648 domains per day. At the current rate, more than 99,000,000 domains will be registered by year end.
So we probably won't hit 100,000,000 by year end, but registration rates remain strong.
Friday, August 26, 2011
Registration Data for NNNNN.com Domains
This post looks at registration data for 250 random NNNNN.com domains to gain insight into the landscape.
The first item we will look at is how long NNNNN.com domains have been continuously registered.
Graphing
As the results show, about 30% of NNNNN.com domains have been registered continuously for one year (meaning their expiration date is less than one year away from when they were initially registered). The second largest result was for domains registered for 7 years, which is when Marchex registered nearly all the US zip code domains. Domains that have been registered for longer are more likely to continue to be registered, and to be used for developed sites or cash-generating parked pages.
The average expiration date for domains registered for one year is February 8, 2012, which is close to six months away from today, suggesting that expiration dates are evenly spread throughout the year.
The big open question is how many of the most recent registrants will hold their domains for longer than a year. If nearly all of them let their domains expire, there may not be a buyout this year of NNNNN.coms that sticks. On the other hand, if only 1/4 of recent registrants renew their domains, it is likely that the buyout will stick at some point in the near future, given the strong continued buying/registering interest in NNNNN.com's and the increasingly tightening supply (over 99.9% are currently registered). And the data from past years suggests that this is not unreasonable to expect.
I have been looking at drops over the past month or so and approximately 58 domains drop per day. This shows that approximately 1/3 of new registrants (registered in the past year) are renewing their domains, and 2/3 are letting them drop. While this might suggest weakness in the NNNNN.com market, it actually shows that supply is tightening very rapidly, and that last year's 10,000 domains renewed by first-time registrants will likely be repeated this year. This is an incredibly bullish projection for NNNNN.com domains at this point, and suggests the buyout will likely stick at some point in the next year as continued interest from new registrants and tightening supply make it virtually inevitable. In two or three years it is likely that NNNNN.com drops will be as rare as LLLL.com drops (about 10-20/day) or possibly even rarer.
The next item looks at who owns NNNNN.com domains.
Graphing
Of the 250 randomly selected domains, nearly half were owned by Asians, mainly Chinese, although some Japanese and Hong Kong owners appeared as well. The next biggest category of owners was Marchex, which I listed separately even though it is a US company. Interestingly, the next biggest owner of NNNNN.com domains is Italy, and these domains have been registered for several years. Although these domains are not currently developed it appears, perhaps they are being planned for use as Italian zip code domains, as Italian postal codes are also 5 digits.
The predominance of Asian owners suggests why supply has been tightening over the past couple years and registration periods increasing. Simply put, internet use is expanding rapidly in China and will continue to do so over the next few decades. We are likely in the early stages of an incredible bull market in numeric domains.
The first item we will look at is how long NNNNN.com domains have been continuously registered.
Graphing
As the results show, about 30% of NNNNN.com domains have been registered continuously for one year (meaning their expiration date is less than one year away from when they were initially registered). The second largest result was for domains registered for 7 years, which is when Marchex registered nearly all the US zip code domains. Domains that have been registered for longer are more likely to continue to be registered, and to be used for developed sites or cash-generating parked pages.
The average expiration date for domains registered for one year is February 8, 2012, which is close to six months away from today, suggesting that expiration dates are evenly spread throughout the year.
The big open question is how many of the most recent registrants will hold their domains for longer than a year. If nearly all of them let their domains expire, there may not be a buyout this year of NNNNN.coms that sticks. On the other hand, if only 1/4 of recent registrants renew their domains, it is likely that the buyout will stick at some point in the near future, given the strong continued buying/registering interest in NNNNN.com's and the increasingly tightening supply (over 99.9% are currently registered). And the data from past years suggests that this is not unreasonable to expect.
I have been looking at drops over the past month or so and approximately 58 domains drop per day. This shows that approximately 1/3 of new registrants (registered in the past year) are renewing their domains, and 2/3 are letting them drop. While this might suggest weakness in the NNNNN.com market, it actually shows that supply is tightening very rapidly, and that last year's 10,000 domains renewed by first-time registrants will likely be repeated this year. This is an incredibly bullish projection for NNNNN.com domains at this point, and suggests the buyout will likely stick at some point in the next year as continued interest from new registrants and tightening supply make it virtually inevitable. In two or three years it is likely that NNNNN.com drops will be as rare as LLLL.com drops (about 10-20/day) or possibly even rarer.
The next item looks at who owns NNNNN.com domains.
Graphing
Of the 250 randomly selected domains, nearly half were owned by Asians, mainly Chinese, although some Japanese and Hong Kong owners appeared as well. The next biggest category of owners was Marchex, which I listed separately even though it is a US company. Interestingly, the next biggest owner of NNNNN.com domains is Italy, and these domains have been registered for several years. Although these domains are not currently developed it appears, perhaps they are being planned for use as Italian zip code domains, as Italian postal codes are also 5 digits.
The predominance of Asian owners suggests why supply has been tightening over the past couple years and registration periods increasing. Simply put, internet use is expanding rapidly in China and will continue to do so over the next few decades. We are likely in the early stages of an incredible bull market in numeric domains.
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Auction Results from 4.cn
Here are more auction results from the last week at 4.cn.
811188.com | RMB¥200 | $30 |
2817.cn | RMB¥351 | $53 |
7276.cn | RMB¥469 | $70 |
987188.com | RMB¥200 | $30 |
265.so | RMB¥320 | $48 |
180.so | RMB¥380 | $57 |
155.so | RMB¥400 | $60 |
5572.net | RMB¥485 | $73 |
4408.net | RMB¥320 | $48 |
76777.com | RMB¥3,608 | $541 |
7387.cn | RMB¥440 | $66 |
5106.com | RMB¥9,733 | $1,460 |
580.so | RMB¥703 | $105 |
58882.com | RMB¥220 | $33 |
3119.net | RMB¥590 | $89 |
7858.net | RMB¥650 | $98 |
9290.com | RMB¥13,000 | $1,950 |
9609.cn | RMB¥510 | $77 |
45566.com | RMB¥2,100 | $315 |
Monday, August 22, 2011
48 NNNNN.com available to register
After touching all-bought-out status a couple times in the last month, a week of heavy drops has left us with 48 NNNNN.com domains available to register as of this morning.
That is still very few, as 100,000 of these domains exist in total.
It is quite possible that in a year's time or less, these domains will be 100% registered and all drops will be picked up, similar to what exists with LLLL.com domains. Unlike with the previous buyout of NNNNN.com's where 20,000 domains were bought in a frenzy in a couple weeks, this one has been years in the making, with a steady registration pace of around 13/day. Therefore it makes sense that the buyout doesn't "stick" immediately, because it is not a buyout like the last one.
The buyers nowadays are not looking to cash in on the next domain buyout bubble like LLLL.com's in early 2008, when bad letters were going for $50-$60 a pop. We all know how that ended, both LLLL.com's and NNNNN.com's crashed, LLLL.com's back to being around $10-$15 for bad letters and NNNNN.com's back to reg fee.
Long term, the fundamentals for NNNNN.com's are likely as good or even better than LLLL.com's, and the sneaking steady registration is a sign of that. A significant portion of these domains are actually used by end-users for traffic, redirect, or real developed sites (mainly Chinese but other foreign and English-language sites as well). Plus, whereas there are 450,000+ LLLL.com's, there are only 100,000 NNNNN.com's, and a random NNNNN.com is likely to get significantly more google hits (and therefore possible uses) than a random LLLL.com.
That is still very few, as 100,000 of these domains exist in total.
It is quite possible that in a year's time or less, these domains will be 100% registered and all drops will be picked up, similar to what exists with LLLL.com domains. Unlike with the previous buyout of NNNNN.com's where 20,000 domains were bought in a frenzy in a couple weeks, this one has been years in the making, with a steady registration pace of around 13/day. Therefore it makes sense that the buyout doesn't "stick" immediately, because it is not a buyout like the last one.
The buyers nowadays are not looking to cash in on the next domain buyout bubble like LLLL.com's in early 2008, when bad letters were going for $50-$60 a pop. We all know how that ended, both LLLL.com's and NNNNN.com's crashed, LLLL.com's back to being around $10-$15 for bad letters and NNNNN.com's back to reg fee.
Long term, the fundamentals for NNNNN.com's are likely as good or even better than LLLL.com's, and the sneaking steady registration is a sign of that. A significant portion of these domains are actually used by end-users for traffic, redirect, or real developed sites (mainly Chinese but other foreign and English-language sites as well). Plus, whereas there are 450,000+ LLLL.com's, there are only 100,000 NNNNN.com's, and a random NNNNN.com is likely to get significantly more google hits (and therefore possible uses) than a random LLLL.com.
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Ebay Auctions
22 rare Palindromic NNNNNN.com (6 digit .com domains) with "88" in the middle are currently up for auction at Ebay. Will be interesting to see how they do, lots of nice six digit sales have been coming through recently.
Another Ebay sale of note recently.
29900.com sold for $49.99. Here is the link for that one. Other recent sales for ABBCC.com numeric domains have also been good:
36677.com sold for $78 on 4.cn.
23377.com sold for $42 on 4.cn
Another Ebay sale of note recently.
29900.com sold for $49.99. Here is the link for that one. Other recent sales for ABBCC.com numeric domains have also been good:
36677.com sold for $78 on 4.cn.
23377.com sold for $42 on 4.cn
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