Tuesday, October 28, 2008

McCain Intrade Contracts are Incredibly Cheap

I usually don't post about politics, but every once in a while (close to important elections) can't resist. Also, it's all numbers, right? So theoretically it's related to numeric domain names. Anyways, I am kind of startled at how low the prediction markets have McCain contracts at. Intrade has McCain at 12.4!!! Maybe McCain has 0% chance of winning the election, but it seems to me that at this point it may be a good time to buy McCain contracts. Why? Because things can't get much worse for McCain, and it is plausible that between now and the election something will happen which will cause McCain contracts to leap in value at least somewhat (some good polls, bad news for Obama, major economic/world developments, etc.). At that point, one could sell the contracts. Also, it's not likely that McCain contracts are going to get much lower before election day, while there is some chance they will jump in value a lot. But, of course, I don't think McCain has a real shot of winning this thing, so I wouldn't want to be owning a bunch of McCain contracts on election day.